Awards Week: Oscar Preview

The 81st Academy Awards celebration will commence tomorrow night and this year there's little to get excited about. The Best Picture nominees are largely middling--"Milk" was filled with great performances and "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" was close to excellent. But "Slumdog" was all flash and no depth, "Frost/Nixon" was an entertaining trifle, and "The Reader" is an embarrassment to the Academy. It's not a horrible movie. It's just not any good. How many other films were deserving of thesel five spots? I can name you at least ten.

It was selected because its producer Harvey Weinstein is a master of getting films nominated. Its selection lays bare the vacuity of the Awards. The game is close to fixed. Like politics, Oscars are given to those who are able to throw enough money into the campaign. And the films are furiously campaigned for. Pick up a copy of Variety any time in the Winter and you'll see. Those full page ads are expensive.

The selections are almost always safe and predictable as well. (Those film goers wanting to consult the Academy for some of the year's most interesting films should look to the Best Original Screenplay category--the ghetto to where the year's more edgy, engaging films are usually relegated.) The best way to approach the awards is to see them as an expensive pageant put on by the studios to help boost ticket and DVD sales. Winning an award brings some prestige to the studios, but more importantly they help make them money. Hense the expensive campaigning.

Best not to get too upset if your favorite films don't win any awards, or aren't even nominated. The Academy Awards are to quality as winning the Pro Bowl is to gridiron glory.

With all those caveats, here's my quick run through the major nominees (see full list here):

Performance by an actor in a leading role

* Richard Jenkins in "The Visitor" (Overture Films)
* Frank Langella in "Frost/Nixon" (Universal)
* Sean Penn in "Milk" (Focus Features)
* Brad Pitt in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
* Mickey Rourke in "The Wrestler" (Fox Searchlight)

Seems like it's Rourke's to lose. Academy voters like a good story and the story of a performer trying to resurrect his career dovetails nicely with Rourke's comeback story in the making. Consider Penn a strong second place.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

* Josh Brolin in "Milk" (Focus Features)
* Robert Downey Jr. in "Tropic Thunder" (DreamWorks, Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
* Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Doubt" (Miramax)
* Heath Ledger in "The Dark Knight" (Warner Bros.)
* Michael Shannon in "Revolutionary Road" (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage)

The Academy will award this to Ledger. This one's a lock. My safe pick of the week.

Performance by an actress in a leading role

* Anne Hathaway in "Rachel Getting Married" (Sony Pictures Classics)
* Angelina Jolie in "Changeling" (Universal)
* Melissa Leo in "Frozen River" (Sony Pictures Classics)
* Meryl Streep in "Doubt" (Miramax)
* Kate Winslet in "The Reader" (The Weinstein Company)

Winslet was a Golden Globe winner for her performance. Expect the same Sunday. This is where the Weinstein's "Reader" campaigning will pay off. Would really like to see Leo or Hathaway win this one, but don't count on it.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

* Amy Adams in "Doubt" (Miramax)
* Penélope Cruz in "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" (The Weinstein Company)
* Viola Davis in "Doubt" (Miramax)
* Taraji P. Henson in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
* Marisa Tomei in "The Wrestler" (Fox Searchlight)

Not sure. Viola Davis was good and seems to have buzz. I'd go with her in a pinch. "Doubt" was an actor's showcase and I expect it to win at least one award.

Best animated feature film of the year

* "Bolt" (Walt Disney) Chris Williams and Byron Howard
* "Kung Fu Panda" (DreamWorks Animation, Distributed by Paramount) John Stevenson and Mark Osborne
*"WALL-E" (Walt Disney) Andrew Stanton

"WALL-E" was the best animated film and this year's best film. Should win.

Best motion picture of the year

*"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
*"Frost/Nixon"
*"Milk"
*"The Reader"
* "Slumdog Millionaire"

"Slumdog" has been an audience favorite. It's got a triumphant love story, a lead character overcoming adversity, and its safely exotic. Think this will win.